A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
